Patitos Post

They say that to succeed in life, you ought to begin with the end of your life as a frame of reference and work from the beginning towards achieving the end that you plan for yourself. This law which is called ‘beginning with the end in mind’ is a law that appears to have been lost on the present administration in Nigeria. Now why do I say that? My readers may recall that at the beginning of this year, former president Olusegun Obasanjo had rightly said that Nigerians should expect harsher economic times due to the then looming global recession. So many pundits called him names, but what the man said was the truth because globally the economy was beginning to unravel which meant that governments the world over would have to be frugal in their expenditures. Now Nigeria being a country that is almost entirely dependent on oil rents from the oil majors would obviously be caught up in this global recession so it was not a surprise when the president suggested that the salaries and emoluments of political office holders be slashed to reflect the current economic realities. That seemed a laudable gesture and was applauded.

Now given that the federal government is aware that there is a global recession which has not eased and appears to be getting worse and being that the government has admitted that its income is dwindling and that it may have a deficit budget in 2010 it would be natural to expect the government to cut its coat according to its size and spend only on the most essential items.

For instance, Nigeria’s power generation is abysmally low and the government has been unable to fulfill its promise of declaring a power emergency or generating 6,000 MW of electricity. Then again, Nigeria still imports fuel and the FG has recently expressed delight at the prospect of importing fuel from Senegal even though Nigeria is a major exporter of crude oil. Even at this moment, the Nigerian Labour Congress is gearing up for a monumental struggle with the FG over the withdrawal of petroleum subsidy which the government has said it can not afford. The deplorable state of our roads including but not limited to the Lagos-Ore-Abuja road and the Abuja Kaduna road which are so bad and have claimed the lives of prominent Nigerians have to be fixed ASAP and ASUU has had to go on strike for several months this year due to inadequate funding of the education sector. All these are priority areas on which we must focus our scarce resources before we engage in frivolous luxuries.

Now with the dire state of our finances and the urgent needs in our country, you could imagine my surprise when the federal government presented it’s budget to the National Assembly and requested appropriation for four new presidential jets at a cost of $210 million USD. Now this portrays us as a nation that does not know the difference between its needs and its wants. The last thing we need is another presidential jet. In fact what we ought to be doing is to sell the presidential jets we already have and plow the funds into areas that need urgent attention.

Indeed the FG recently obtained a $300 million loan from the International Development Association to boost the power sector. Perhaps officials of the IDA may have wondered why we needed that loan if we had $210 million to spend on four new presidential jets.

The British Prime Minister flies in a British Airways commercial or Royal Air force auxiliary jets and this is a country several times richer than Nigeria at the present moment, so would it kill our own president if he cuts his coat according to our size and flies in a commercial airline?

The news of the four new presidential jets to be purchased for the presidential fleet was put into greater perspective when in the same budget the FG proposed to buy ‘fairly used’ helicopters for our armed forces so they could police our borders. Where are our priorities? Has it not occurred to the president’s kitchen cabinet that there is no national carrier in Nigeria today, yet we have a robust presidential fleet?

The wasteful expenditures of the executive which does not reflect our present dire financial straits is also being copied by the legislative as was seen by the plans of the House of Representatives to purchase 18 bullet proof vehicles for its principal officers. What is happening here? We are a country that regularly receives financial aid from Western donor nations whereas these Western donor nations will never indulge in these types of wasteful expenditure, any wonder then why we are still receiving aid and they are still in a position to give us aid?

I wonder how the Senate President or the Speaker of the Nigerian House of representatives feel when they travel abroad to discuss with their counterparts in other nations and the issue of financial aid crops up. Would they not feel uncomfortable that they have budgeted for themselves 29 billion naira for their international travels while NO western democracy spends as much as that on their legislators travels? Would they still have the confidence to ask their host country for financial aid? Would they not suspect that their hosts would be saying to themselves that ‘you are not serious if you expect me to give you more money so you can spend more billions on international travels that do not yield tangible results for your country’? My readers may recall that the Speaker of the British parliament had to resign over a travel expense row involving less than 1% of the amount that Nigerian legislators have budgeted for their international travels.

We can’t keep behaving like children and squandering our resources on the most non essential vanity items. Nigeria is the largest black nation in the world and we need to provide leadership to our brethren all over the world and we do not do this when we can not delay gratification especially as most of our population lives on less than a dollar a day. The $210 million to be spent on these presidential jets could build a new power plant to boost electricity generation, could build a new refinery to reduce fuel scarcity, could repair roads and reduce untimely deaths via road accidents or could provide soft loans to peasant farmers to boost Nigeria’s food security.

In the final analysis, the choice is before Nigerians as 2011 approaches. Do you/we want to continue this way where our government lavishly spends our scarce resources on non essential items while our human development index is steadily dropping or do we want a government that is responsible to the needs of Nigeria and spends our resources on only essential itmes? The choice is yours to make in 2011. Please register to vote, encourage others to so do and then prepare to vote in 2011 and most importantly be prepared to guard your vote and make it count.

Once again, God bless Nigeria.

PU.

The recent Corruption Perception Index released by Transparency International this past week and which showed that Nigeria has retrogressed in the corruption battle is something that should cause concern amongst lovers of Nigeria. Nigeria has slipped 9 paces backward and this is a reflection on the effectiveness or not of this administration’s ‘rule of law’ stance. Many have complained that the rule of law stance of this administration has made law enforcement agencies timid in the fight against corruption and have actually questioned whether the rule of law is the right way. However, discerning members of the public may understand that rule of law is not something you say, but is something that is practiced and simply means following due process in the administration of a country. This does not mean that the hands of Law enforcement agencies should be tied. In fact the only thing tying the hands of law enforcement officials appears to be the lack of political will to go after those who are corrupt. For where you have the law actually tying the hand of law enforcement and emboldening the corrupt, then what you have is not rule of law, but ‘ruse of law’.

Now consider that after the TI list came out, the administration gave a press conference in which officials stated that the reason Nigeria slipped in corruption rating is due to the recent events in the Private Sector most especially the banking industry. First of all, this is patently untrue. Transparency International bases its corruption perception on surveys carried out in the previous year and the early part of the present year. As such, the events in the banking industry which only became public knowledge in August of this year would not have formed the basis of Nigeria’s corruption perception rating.

Now, even if the incidences in the banking sector was responsible for the slip in Nigeria’s corruption rating, does it even matter? The end result is still the same-Corruption is on the rise in Nigeria. Trading blame will not solve it and it gives the impression that the government is not responsible. Why? Well, even if the corruption is in the private sector, whose duty is it to tackle such corruption? Is it not the government? The Private Sector can not regulate and police itself?

But a thorough analysis of events in Nigeria will show that our perception as a corrupt country is more amplified with reports that ex governors and other ex officials against whom corruption have been established are being received in our presidential villa by the president. More troubling for our corruption rating is the fact that some of these ex governors have issued press statements and given press interviews boasting of their influence over the president and his administration. With news reports of universities (which should be citadels of learning and training our youth in the best moral traditions) asking persons who have pending corruption cases against them to give lectures or to receive honorary degrees none should be surprised that the international community takes more than a passing interest of these instances and judge us by them. I mean what are we telling our youth when we behave like this? Are we not telling them that it does not matter how you get the money or power as long as you get it because the end justifies the means? These type of reports are more damaging to Nigeria’s image and lead to a higher corruption perception than anything that has happened in the private sector. It gives the outside world the impression that the inmates are running the asylum.

So what is the way forward on this issue? Rather than trade blames, members of the federal executive committee who have influence with the president ought to tell him that giving audience to persons against whom corruption has been established or those who are yet to clear their names in ongoing corruption cases has to stop. You can not run with dogs and not expect to have fleas and tics. Actions have consequences and a lower corruption rating is the consequence of the president’s public romance with these ‘godfathers’.

Now something else struck me after reading the press release from federal officials in response to Nigeria’s worsening corruption perception. One of the ministers who gave this press conference was quoted to have said that the better corruption rating Nigeria achieved in 2007 and 2008 were an endorsement of the efforts of the present administration in fighting corruption. Now this is sad. Really sad, because it portrays the person making that statement as a person who does not know and does not know that he does not know.

The truth is that the better ratings Nigeria had in 2007 and 2008 had to do with events which occurred in 2006 and 2007 BEFORE this administration came into being. Now who can be said to be responsible for such good ratings in those years? One name cames to my mind and that is Nuhu Ribadu. And what did this government do to Nuhu Ribadu who through the effort of his team improved Nigeria’s corruption rating? He was kicked out of the EFCC and had to go on exile. Conversely the question may be asked-what has happened to those Nuhu Ribadu arrested and tried? The answer is that some of them have become so powerful today they are now referred to as godfathers! And yet we are surprised that our corruption rating has spiked. In all honesty, 2009 is the first full year under which this administration has been guaged for corruption because the period used for the survey was 2008-2009. And should this administration be surprised really? Didn’t Hilary Clinton right in Abuja at the Shehu Musa Yar’adua center say that ‘the EFCC has fallen off in the last 2 years’?

Now the thing with corruption is that it has gotten to the stage where it is affecting our prestige and standing in Africa making us vulnerable to other African countries who are solving their problems and reducing corruption. I give an example. Nigeria is an oil producing countries that still imports almost all of her fuel. Now Senegal is a country less endowed with natural resources than Nigeria and more importantly it has no oil, yet it is able to refine oil in such quantities to be self sufficient in fuel supply to her people. The news now is that Senegal has offered to assist Nigeria refine her oil and supply fuel to us. Now this is official. The Nigerian government has actually officially, through its minister of state for petroleum, expressed delight over this offer. Now is it not shameful that one of the largest exporters of crude oil will have to depend on a poorer neighbouring country that is less endowed than her to refine her fuel. This type of story is what is read outside our shores and fuels the type of perception rating we get. It is not a honourable thing that Nigeria will have to consider importing fuel from Senegal. It is certainly not something I can say with my heads raised high. It shames me. The question to be asked by the government of itself should be -If fuel can be refined in Senegal why cant it be refined in Nigeria? Nigeria has the crude oil but what it lacks are refineries. Now technology exists today that can deliver a refinery that can refine over 2 million gallons of PMS per day within 6 months. If the issue is refining of our crude, why cant we go this route? Its simplistic really. Importing fuel from Senegal or any other nation on the long run can never be more cost effective than refining our own crude domestically. Nigeria has a better comparative advantage than Senegal or any other West African country in refining fuel for export. The only obstacle to achieving this is the corruption that has eaten deep into the oil and gas sector in Nigeria. As I have said before and still say, the power lies in government to bring about the conditions that will make it less profitable for people to import fuel than it is to refine locally. As I said, one way we can force this process is by placing huge taxes on profits from fuel imports.  For instance, if you import fuel for 10 Naira and sell for 20 Naira, the government will tax 7 Naira out of the 10 Naira profit you have made. This will make it senseless for them to pass the cost to the consumer because whatever profit you make, government will tax 70% of it. Please understand, this is different from a tax on imported fuel-that I do not advocate because it will bring hardship on the people, rather I advocate for a tax on the profits from imported fuel.  However, if you refine locally, government will give you a tax holiday (no tax at all). These people like money and when they see this, they will rush to build their refineries. This is the major job of a government- create the atmosphere that encourages free enterprise. However, you need a capable honest and steadfast leader to accomplish this because they will try to compromise you with bribes and you have to love Nigeria more than yourself to refuse such bribes.

If we do not do this and continue to rely on imports, we will never become self sufficient in providing fuel for our domestic needs and if we are not self sufficient in this area, our economy will continue to be vulnerable to outside shocks and we will be like a ship without sails tossed to and from with every passing wind of world uncertainty. If we import fuel from Senegal, especially if we do this long term, we will soon find that we are dependent on Senegal and when you are dependent on another nation, to some extent that nation controls you.

Now in the midst of all these, you would expect to find our legislators checking the executive and expressing their outrage at both the Transparency International rating and the prospect of imprting fuel from Senegal. But no. As I write this piece, the Senate of the National Assembly and the House of Representatives are locked in a battle of self importance over who between the two should host the president as he present this year’s budget. And so the budget that should have been presented last week has had to be postponed indefinitely as the legislators squabble over such a trifle matter. Now as a lecturer on management , one of the things I teach my student is that you are likely to have more conflicts when you have less work to do. I teach that if you want to eliminate petty squabbles, the best thing to do is create work for the people you have under you.

The truth is that this squabble at the National Assembly is only possible because there is not enough work for our legislators to do. Since 1999 less than 650 laws have been passed or amended by our legislators and in that time, we have spent close to 600 billion Naira on them. To put this into perspective, let me state that Brazil, Pakistan, South Africa and Egypt all generate more electricity than Nigeria, have a higher per capita income than Nigeria, have a higher adult literacy rate than Nigeria, with a much lower infant and maternal mortality rate than Nigeria, yet Nigeria pays her legislators significantly more money than legislators in these countries are paid. What does this say about our priorities?

The other day we were reading about 18 bullet proof vehicles being bought for the speaker of the house of representatives and his deputy? Now this is in a country where most of us live on less than a dollar a day. These are the headlines that the outside world reads and forms a perception about Nigeria. It is sad. Truly sad. But where do we go from here? What is the solution?

The solution as I am never tired of saying is in genuine free and fair elections. Most of these people in the executive and legislator do not owe their positions to the electorates but to god fathers who imposed them on Nigeria and as such they know which side of their bread is buttered and by whom and will only pander to the dictates of their benefactors. This is simple human nature. You only owe gratitude to your benefactor. So the solution will be to make the electorate the benefactor via a genuine free and fair election. And it can happen in Nigeria because it happened before. The elections of June 12 1993 were overwhelmingly free and fair and they happened even though the administration of the day did not want them to be free and fair.

What is the moral of this? The moral is that we should struggle for electoral reform, however, if the present administration refuses to reform our electoral practices we should be aware that we can still have free and fair elections in spite of them because we have done so before in 1993. So I urge my readers to start with themselves and just like a pebble thrown into a river they can begin to initiate that ripple effect and increase their circle of influence. Register to vote and encourage others to do so, actually vote in 2011 and encourage others to do so, and most importantly guard your votes. No one hands over something good to you without a struggle except a parent or a lover/friend. For all things that are worth having we need to struggle to achieve them and that struggle may lead to death for some. All must give some and some may give all, but at the end of the day it will be worth it to live in a Nigeria full of natural resources like oil and knows what do with it to add value to her citizens rather than planning to import fuel from Senegal.

Once again, God bless Nigeria.

PU.

I sometimes think about the state that Nigeria as a country finds itself and find myself slipping into despair. I immediately catch myslef, because the most effective defeat you can be faced with is to be defeated in your mind. But truly, the glaring contradictions in the everyday Nigerian life does cause some concern and will have to be dealt with head on if Nigeria is to survive and not be a failed nation.

Take for instance the fact that Nigeria has a much lower Per Capita Income, Electricity Generation and adult literacy as well as a much higher Maternal and Infant mortality rate than Egypt, South Africa, Pakistan and India, yet Nigeria pays her state and federal legislators as well as her Local Government Chairmen and councilors much more than their counterparts earn in these countries. I mean this is nothing if not a contradiction. If anything, Nigeria should not be able to afford to pay her legislators anything beyond sitting allowance, especially being that we are a country where most of us live on less than a dollar a day.

I was a bit dismayed recently when the FG and the National Economic Council announced a stimulus package of about $2 billion. When the headline caught my eye, I expected to read that this money was going to be spent on infrastructure or given to failing industries such as the textile industry and the manufacturing sector. But imagine my surprise when I read that the money was to be shared by the FG and the states! What kind of stimulus package is that? How can money given to governments stimulate economic growth especially when as in the case of Nigeria corruption is most prevalent in the governments at all levels! Ought this money have been better spent on immediate contracts to construction giants to build, repair and extend roads in Nigeria, an action that would have seen them employing hundreds of thousands of the jobless youths who are involved in anti social acts like armed robbery and kidnapping? Ought this money have been put to better use in giving grants to textile industries so that instead of closing shop or moving to Ghana, they could remain a going concern and continue to employ Nigerians? The FG and state governments do not need any stimulus package, they already have too much money on their hands. How can the president and governors who have convoys of cars worth tens of billions be in need of money? If they need money, they can as well sell their luxury cars, but instead, we are informed by the media that they intend to buy even more luxurious cars such as the 18 bullet proof cars recently announced for the speaker and his deputy! Nigeria can not afford these luxuries at all!

There is so much dire need in Nigeria and we see  a daily reminder of this when we are on our roads driving to work, or from work. Most roads in Nigeria are in such bad condition that road travel is a hazardous task and this is all the more sad because in Nigeria of today, there are no alternatives to road travel for most people. I recently undertook a journey from Lagos to Benin by road and spent 8 hours on the road for a journey of just 330 KM. And then I thought to myself-what do ordinary, everyday Nigerians go through if such a major free way between our commercial capital and a former regional capital can be this bad? I don’t want to sound like a broken record because the state of that particular road is well known, but what gets to me is that there are several persons  who have been giving the charge of fixing our roads and have either not done anything or have done a shoddy job and are still parading themselves as leaders. Now, you would expect that if someone has been given such a sensitive task as heading a ministry meant to fix  roads and failed in the task such a person would become a pariah. But such is not the case in Nigeria. You and I know that rather than receive odium, the men who have been tasked with this duty and have failed have been hailed as ‘the leader’ by PDP top shots including the president himself and have been promoted and deified almost. Now if we treat the persons who have refused to do their duties so, how do we expect other charged with sensitive duties to do their jobs well? Obviously there is no consequence for failure, so why bother to succeed especially with the shoddy way and manner the few people who succeeded at their posts are being treated.

Let us bring this further to home and talk about Power Generation. The Federal Government promised 6,000 MW by December and today, just 2 weeks to December, we are not producing half that number. I pray that we are able to generate 6,000 MW by December, but it is very unlikely. Such achievements do not happen by accident. They are planned and worked for. Of late we have been getting excuses from the FG on the issue of power generation with the latest being that Nigeria could actually meet her 6,000 MW target in December but for the shortage of gas. Now as I write to you, Nigeria is exporting gas to other countries. If this is the case how can she be having gas shortages? Well some may say that we do not have the infrastructure to ferry gas to our power generation plants. If this is the case, the question becomes-why did we not envisage that and make plans to cure this deficiency before the FG made a promise on increasing electricity generation to 6,000 MW by December of 2009? A government should not just wake up one morning and make promises without first checking that these promises can be backed up. And if a government does make these kinds of empty promises,  the honourable thing would be for the government official who is responsible for the failure of this promise to resign or be fired by his boss-the president. However, the minister has seen how his boss-the president- has treated the man who failed to fix our roads. He has seen this man promoted, respected and appreciated  by the PDP and seeing this, the minister will know that in Nigeria (at least Nigeria of today), there are no consequences for failure and so he will be unperturbed.

And therein lies the problem. If there are no consequences for failure, and if elections are rigged and are not a reflection of peoples will, how can we ever drive the change we need in Nigeria? You see, the system is in itself the problem. If even you bring an angel to work under the present system where there are no consequences for failure and elections can be manipulated, such an angel will have no stimulus to succeed. Its like offering automatic promotion to a student. If you do this, what motivation has the student got to read and study hard in order to succeed? None.

We in Nigeria have our work cut out for us. We have to make sure that in 2011 we change the system by purposely voting en masse to rid ourselves of bad leaders at every level of the society from the Local Government Councilor, to the presidency we must get rid of inept and corrupt leadership. Now how do we do this?

Hostory has shown that it is virtually impossible to rig elections where there is an overwhelming voter turn out. Robert Mugabe recently learnt this lesson when he lost out to Morgan Tsvangirai in 2008 because Zimbabweans turned out en masse to vote and the sheer number made it impossible to rig the vote. This was also the lesson that MKO Abiola taught Nigeria when he inspired Nigerians to come out en masse to vote fare well to poverty  in 1993. The voter turn out was almost total and the sheer number of voters overwhelmed Gen. Ibrahim Babangida’s plans to manipulate the election and make it indecisive. And next door to us, Ghanaians also proved this both in 2004 and in 2008 when they came out overwhelmingly to vote.

My dear fellow country men, low voter turn out is conducive, very conducive to rigging. So when you are beginning to feel disillusioned about what happened in 2007 and in Ekiti and swear that you will never come out to vote in Nigeria, know that the oppressors have you were they want you. You must resist that temptation to fall into a cynical state. Listen my people, cynicism is not wisdom. There is no wisdom in siddon look. Siddon look only strengthens the oppressor. Don’t say things like ‘na today, abeg leave matter jo, I no dey vote‘. No, no, no! We must press on and register to vote, encourage others to so do, vote in 2007 and be prepared to guard your votes. We have to give up our legendary complacency! Remember that there are over 140 million Nigerians and the cabal of corrupt politicians and ex-military officials holding us to ransom are less than 100,000 in number. If we stand firm in 2011, we can have the Nigeria we want and pray for. The time to act is now and on election day in 2011. Do not go to your beer parlour and complain, do not go under trees and whisper with your friends, do not wait until ASUU strikes over poor pay before your voice is heard, do not wait until your old parents languish in a government hospital with no doctor, drugs or electricity before you act, do not wait until robbers way lay your car on the pot holes of Lagos/Benin or Abuja/Kaduna road before you act, do not wait until you lose your job in your company because it has decided to relocate to Ghana before you act. Listen my brothers and my sisters, the time to act is not and on election day 2011. Remember this whenever you are praying for change in Nigeria- It is good to pray, but it is what you do that God will use to bring about what you pray for. You and others who are willing to subject themselves to be used by the forces of Good which our creator represents are the ones who will bring positive change to Nigeria.

Once again, God bless Nigeria.

PU.

Reading the headlines of late and also having an ear to the ground, it would appear that there is very little certainty in the affairs of those currently administering Nigeria. I mean for instance what is the true story of deregulation? Is it happening or not. Today the government denies it and the next day another high government official confirms it. Is it that this government can not take a stance on an issue? We read that the CBN was against deregulation saying that it would cause further inflation and the next day the story changed. Why is it that we can not bank on what the government says?

This credibility crisis which began with the fraudulent elections of 2007 which brought in a fractured government is actually contaminating every arm of government. Take for instance matters concerning the judiciary. I was brought up to believe that the supreme court is infallible because it is final, however I had cause to have a reality check when of late politicians with influence in Abuja have been approaching the supreme court to over rule itself on issues that had already been decided. And as if this is not bad enough, how do you explain a politician going to an inferior court (The Court of Appeal) seeking to get a relief that had been denied him at the supreme court? These are really strange times!

And law enforcement is not left out. First we were told by the Attorney General that Nigeria will not accede to the Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT) request from Britain requesting Nigeria’s assistance in the prosecution of James Ibori and his associates for money laundering. According to the Attorney General, Nigeria was not a banana republic and would not help another country in prosecuting her citizens. As such he instructed EFCC officials not to testify in the Southwark Crown Court in London. Many had considered this statement odd especially considering that Nigeria had made requests to other countries based on the same MLAT. However, this week, the story has changed and we are informed by the EFCC that they have now obtained permission from higher authorities and they WILL be testifying in the British courts in the matter concerning Ibori’s associates.

And the Legislature is not left out. At a time when the government has all but exhausted the huge reserves the Obasanjo administration left behind and has of late been complaining of dwindling resources, Nigerians were stunned to learn that the speaker of the House of Representatives and his principal officers have purchased 18 state of the art bullet proof vehicles for their convoys. After this news item hit the press, we were regaled with a series of denials from the speakers office. Predictably the next day, there was a further statement explaining the true state of things. Now we are told that the cars were actually bought, but they do not belong to the speaker but are the property of the public. This is like telling a child that a goat belongs to him. While the goat is hungry and in need of tending it may belong to the child, but as soon as it is slaughtered all will soon know the real owner of the goat. At the end of the day, what has been established is that the cars are actually being bought at tax payers expense for the benefit of the speaker and his principal officers who are already costing the public billions of naira in maintenance cost each year.

To say that this administration has contaminated Nigeria with its credibility crisis is indeed to say the obvious. I can ask ten government officials today what is going to happen to the banks recently shaken up by the CBN policy and I will likely get 10 different answers. We have been told that they would be sold to foreign investors, then that they would not. That it would be nationalized, and then that they would not. That they would be auctioned off and then so on and so forth. But still there is uncertainty. Borrowers are afraid to borrow and banks are afraid to lend because of the uncertainty and of course the economy suffers the pains.

In the area of power generation the same uncertainty reigns supreme. We were told that we would generate and transmit 6,000 MW by December and then just last month the minister in charge gave a press statement saying that we were currently able to generate 5,000 MW. The next day, Thisday newspapers revealed that we were actually generating less than 3,000 MW. Still the next day the minister’s chief press secretary released a statement that what the minister actually meant was that Nigeria could generate 5,000 MW if there was enough gas supply. I thought to myself that if the minister meant that, why did he not say that? So now 3 weeks to December were are currently generating less than half the target set for December which at the last time we heard from the government was 6,000 MW.

This uncertainty again reared its ugly head in the Malam Nasir El Rufai/Nuhu Ribadu passport saga. First Malam El Rufai alerted the nation that the government had ordered that he be denied consular services. The next day the government denied it and called him a liar. The next week it emerged that that a secret memo had been sent to all foreign missions ordering that the duo be denied consular services. That same week the government that had called Malam El Rufai a ‘liar’ was forced to eat its words and reverse its secret directive.

This same credibility crisis or double mindedness has also affected the constitution amendment exercise of the National Assembly. How many times have we read that there will be state creation and changes to the revenue policy and then read soon after wards that this is not the case. Same goes for the electoral reform exercise. Once the government pledged that it would reform our electoral practices and set up the Mohammed Uwais Electoral Reform Committee. However after the committee delivered its recommendations to the government it has been the usual case of motion without movement. The same government that had set up the committee picked holes in their findings (mainly because the committee did a thorough job that would actually lead to free and fair elections if implemented) and sent their recommendations to another committee headed by the attorney general to ‘fine tune’ its recommendations. I am still looking for someone in government who can give a concrete and equivocal statement on where this government stands on the issue of electoral reform. In fact, it was the Senate of the national assembly that issued a statement two months ago to the effect that the Uwais’ committee’s recommendations were not sacrosanct.

Even the recent amnesty granted militants has suffered from this credibility crisis. There is dispute in the number of arms and the number of militants who surrendered. Today we read that one militant leader has surrendered and embraced peace, the next day that he regrets doing so and wants to change his mind. Today the Niger Delta governors are in league with the Federal Government in the amnesty programme, tomorrow they are at logger heads. We hear of different sums appropriated for this project by the government and are not sure which is true. No one in Nigeria today can actually and with confidence issue a concrete statement on what the amnesty is about and what it has achieved. Everyone speaks in extremely ambiguous language on this vital issue.

It has been said that a double minded man is unstable in all his ways and nothing establishes this principle like the present administration in Nigeria. We have a government that reprobates than reverses itself giving the public the impression that it is unsure of itself. Like I have said on this page before, history has proven that it will forgive a leader that makes bad decisions, but what will history’s verdict be for a leader who makes no decisions? This administration may well go down in history as delivering so much activity without achieving any results as in the final analysis the fact remains that if you are unable to stand on something you will fall for anything and be moved and shoved by any wind.

Once again, God bless Nigeria.

PU.

The other day I wrote about diversifying our economy away from oil and becoming self sufficient in petroleum products. I did not know that we would have another fuel scarcity so soon, but it’s here with us again as we are all too aware of it. But what I find funny is that the NNPC and top government officials are giving interviews on T.V and in the papers trying to calm everyone down stating that there is enough fuel for forty days domestic consumption and even  more will be imported very soon. This is the tail end of the year 2009 and we are still talking about imports to solve this perennial problem! The fact is that Nigeria’s fuel shortages can never be solved by importing more fuel. If it could have, then it would have been solved a long time ago because we have become proficient in importing fuel.

Importing fuel is or rather should be a stop gap measure, a temporary solution or if you will a palliative to relieve Nigeria in the short term. The ONLY solution to our recurring fuel shortages is in building more refineries in Nigeria to meet our domestic consumption and possibly export to neighbouring countries..

I have on this blog in the past written about the national security risk of relying on imported fuel. I remember citing the example of Japan and the U.S and the fact that the U.S entered into the second world war because it was attacked by Japan at Pearl Harbour and the reason for this attack was the U.S embargo on fuel exports to Japan as a way of punishing her for her support of the axis powers and her intrusion into China. As a direct result of that embargo, Japan (which was at that time dependent on imported fuel) faced the threat of grinding to a halt. Now this occurred in the 1940s and Japan has since overcome that issue. But Nigeria is now in the exact situation that Japan is. Supposing there is a world wide crisis that affects the maritime industry and we are not able to import fuel what do we do? Supposing the countries we import fuel from are unable to meet our demands due to some fuel crises much like the food crisis we had last year and early this year, what do we do? Some may recall that there was a food crisis some months ago and the countries that Nigeria regularly imports rice from where unable to meet their domestic and sub regional demands much less export out of their region. My readers may recall how exposed Nigeria was to that crisis. Given that instance, ought we not to take reasonable steps to plan right now to at least become self sufficient in refining fuel for which we have a comparative advantage?

Surely it will be cheaper to refine the fuel in Nigeria and our neighbouring countries will prefer to buy from us rather than import form far away lands. So what is stopping us from doing this? What are the constraints? The major obstacle to Nigeria’s self sufficiency in refining fuel are the cabal of ex military officials, ex- government officials and the fuel importing syndicate that combine to frustrate any attempt to formulate and sustain policies that enable the proliferation of refineries in Nigeria. And I have said publicly that until we have a government that has the will to break this mafia and the empathy for the long suffering Nigerian masses to refuse to be compromised, we will never be able to refine enough fuel for our domestic consumption despite being one of the leading oil exporters of the world.

We have technology existing today as I write this that can cause refineries to be built and operational in as little as 6 months time, but because this is a long term investment that is capital intensive and does not spew out immediate profits, those at the helm of affairs have not thought it wise to pursue this venture nor promote it and on the contrary regularly change government policies in a 180 direction as to scare away those who might want to do it but who are scared of having their investments frittered away as a result of these policy somersaults. In the business of refineries, there can not be room for immediate gratification only delayed gratification and a government that is unable or unwilling to create the environment that encourages those who are willing to delay gratification and engage in this venture will never be able to solve this recurring crisis of fuel scarcity. Yes it is easier to use connections and get a fuel import licence from NNPC and imprt fuel and become an over night billionaire but where does this leave Nigeria? And we see these entrenched interest holding government to a virtual standstill in this sector as well as the power sector by the short term immediate gratification gains they get from importing fuel and generators. So what do we do? Where do we go from here?

As I have said before and still say, the power lies in government to bring about the conditions that will make it less profitable for people to import fuel than it is to refine locally. As I said, one way we can force this process is by placing huge taxes on profits from fuel imports.  For instance, if you import fuel for 10 Naira and sell for 20 Naira, the government will tax 7 Naira out of the 10 Naira profit you have made. This will make it senseless for them to pass the cost to the consumer because whatever profit you make, government will tax 70% of it. However, if you refine locally, government will give you a tax holiday (no tax at all). These people like money and when they see this, they will rush to build their refineries. However, you need a capable honest and steadfast leader to accomplish this because they will try to compromise you with bribes and you have to love Nigeria more than yourself to refuse such bribes.

If we do not do this and continue to rely on imports, we will never become self sufficient in providing fuel for our domestic needs and if we are not self sufficient in this area, our economy will continue to be vulnerable to outside shocks and we will be like a ship without sails tossed to and from with every passing wind of world uncertainty.

And so I say to you the citizen-take some time to reflect and ask yourself if this government is able to take the steps necessary to ensure Nigeria progresses from being a fuel exporter that imports fuel to being a net exporter of both crude oil and refined products. Ask yourself if this is going to be the last fuel shortage you will experience and if not what this administration is doing to change the status quo and plan for a better future with more stability in fuel supply. Remember that irrespective of your tribe and religion, our sufferings are all the same as fuel shortage is not a respecter of persons. Ask yourself if things will improve if we continue like this. And when you have answered the question, please try to resolve the situation by registering to vote, encouraging others to do so, then plan to vote in 2011 for that candidate at any level that you know will take measures to get Nigeria on the way to self sufficiency in fuel supply and encourage others to do so too and most importantly be prepared to GUARD YOUR VOTES!

Once again, God bless Nigeria.

PU.

It is a sad thing that members of the Nigerian armed forces are used to rig elections and intimidate voters on election day. They do this and at the end of the day a government emerges with a fraudulent mandate, but that is only half  the story. One would think that having helped in getting the government of the day elected, members of the armed forces would be the better for it. But is this the case?

The case of the 28 soldiers recently sentenced to life in prison reminds us of the futility of encouraging election fraud. I can confidently say that a genuinely and democratically elected government will never endorse the injustice that was meted out on these soldiers. Punishing them for protesting the disappearance of their allowances while nothing is done to the man (or men) who perpetrated this act. Now consider how many more soldiers will face a similar fate as these soldiers who protested the embezzlement of their wages.

Not only do I feel sorry for these soldiers, I also feel sorry for former president Obasanjo. What has he got to gain for forcing this government down the throat of Nigerians? Not only has the present administration reversed his policies including the laudable ones amongst them, the government has gone one step further to cut him to size by limiting his influence in the PDP and national politics. His political enemies are being given sensitive appointments to spite him, and governors who were almost his nemesis in the PDP 2003 primaries and were pursued by the EFCC now form the kitchen cabinet of the present administration and he is gradually fading into political irrelevance.

Now I daresay that had chief Obasanjo allowed for a free and fair election, most of his current travails would have been avoided. He would have been honoured as the father of modern Nigeria and he would sleep easy at night. But what does he face today? This is why it is so futile to stifle the people’s voice. Yes the people will lose, but you the usurpers partner will lose also because there is no honour among thieves. My readers will notice that what is happening to Obasanjo is also happening to almost all ex-PDP governors. The only ex- governors who are enjoying peace of mind like Bola Tinubu are those who allowed for free and fair elections.

Certainly chief Obasanjo who presided over Nigeria’s exit from the Paris club by paying Nigeria’s debts can not be happy as this government goes willy nilly acquiring more debts. Can Obasanjo honestly say that he is happy that the privatization of some government owned corporations have been reversed. Can he truly be happy that the impressive foreign reserves he amassed are being depleted in alarming proportions? Can he be said to be happy that the NIPP power projects that he instituted are being abandoned with turbines from GE worth billions of dollars rotting away at our ports as we speak? No he can not be happy, in fact it will torture him because his legacy is being torn to shred and if nothing at all chief Obasanjo is a man who is conscious, very conscious of his place in history. This is what you get for aiding electoral malpractices.

Today Nigeria is almost at war in the Niger Delta, but what thinking people must ask is how did we get to this point? The answer again leads us to election rigging. It has been reported again and again and most recently established by the Justice Kayode Eso panel in River State that these militants were armed by desperate politicians mostly from the PDP for the purpose of rigging elections. Now after ‘winning’ their elections these politicians expected these unemployed youths to hold on to their arms and do nothing until the next election. How wrong they were!

Not only did these youths morph into ‘militants’ many of them have turned into kidnappers and their targets are the very politicians who armed them as well as their families. In fact many politicians  have had to relocate their families to Lagos or Abuja for fear of kidnappers! This is sad but at the same time this is poetic justice. This reflects the oft repeated proverb that if you get a tiger to fight your enemies, when the fight is done and there are no more enemies to fight, the tiger will face you!

Now when you consider the traditional institutions in Nigeria, the emirates in the Nirth and the kingdoms in the South, you begin to see how some of these referred royal fathers are treated with indiginity by governors and when you consider the governors treating them this way, one and all they are governors who have questionable mandates. Imagine governors talking down at royal fathers and threatening them with dethronement or withholding of allowances or some other punitive measure.These royal fathers being so treated have my sympathy, but  should also remember that a child allowed to steal by his father does not go stealthily at night to rob, but will march in broad day light and breaks into a house and when he becomes rich from stealing will end up disrespecting his elders.  The fact remains that a governor genuinely elected by the people of the state will think twice before treating a royal father so poorly because he knows this will incur the wrath of the people and he will pay the price at the next election. But where a governor was rigged into office why would he care what the people think.

The same goes for elder statesmen in our states who are having running battles with their respective governors. Some have even had the indignity of having their houses demolished for the purposes of building non existing roads as a way of spiting them and cutting them to size. Elders have to understand that a she goat does not suffer in her parturition while an elder is in the house.

The bottom line here is that we all pay the price for electoral fraud. One way or the other it will eventually catch up with us because what goes around comes around. It actually pays us more to have free and fair elections.  Anything short of that will keep us perpetually a feeble giant of Africa trying to catch up to a nimble midget like Ghana because as we know, size matters but it is better to be small and called mighty than to be big and called…………. I can not even complete the sentence because it saddens me. My fellow Nigerians we have to wake up and realize that we are our own salvation. God has given us everything we need to stand but we also have the choice to fall and what a great fall we have fallen.

I sometimes am so saddened by the state Nigeria finds itself that I am almost moved to tears. But emotions can not solve Nigeria’s problems, we need positve action from all lovers of Nigeria and we need it now.

Once again God bless Nigeria.

PU.